Let me be straight with you — this is not the market update I expected to be writing right now. A few months ago, the prediction was clear: rates were going to keep dropping, inventory was going to open up, and spring 2026 was going to feel like a reset. That story hasn't played out. Not yet anyway. Rates rose back up after briefly touching 5.9%, inventory is still shrinking, and the market is tighter than it should be at this point in the year.
That said, there's still a lot happening in Cook County that you need to know about. Let's get into the numbers.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Here's what the Cook County market snapshot is showing us for March 1 through April 1, 2026:
- Average Sales Price: $498K — up 4% year over year
- Median List Price: $335K — up 2%
- Sales Price / List Price Ratio: 100.3% — flat at 0% change
- Number of Properties Sold: 4,267 — down 2%
- Months Supply of Inventory: 1.89 — down 24%
Take a second with that last number. 1.89 months of inventory. A balanced market sits at 5 to 6 months. We are nowhere close to balanced. We are deep in seller's market territory and that gap is getting wider, not smaller.
Prices are still climbing — a 4% jump in average sales price to $498K tells you demand isn't going anywhere. And that 100.3% sales price to list price ratio means homes are selling at or slightly above asking. Buyers are still competing. The market hasn't slowed down in the ways people were hoping it would.
Rates Went the Wrong Way
Earlier this year rates dipped down to around 5.9% and there was a real sense of momentum building — like maybe the pressure was finally going to ease up on buyers. Then rates climbed back up. Right now we're sitting in the 6.2% to 6.5% range and that's a meaningful difference in what a monthly payment looks like.
I talked to Steve Molitor at Guaranteed Rate recently and his read on it is that the prediction still holds — rates are expected to come down. The broader economic picture still points in that direction. But the timeline has shifted and right now it's genuinely hard to tell exactly when that happens or how far they'll drop before they do.
Honestly? I expected things to be in a better spot by now. I'm still hopeful about where we end up by late summer or fall — I think the second half of the year could tell a different story. But I'm not going to sit here and give you a guarantee on something nobody can fully predict right now. What I can tell you is that waiting on rates to hit a magic number before you make a move is a strategy that has cost a lot of buyers time and opportunity over the last two years.
Inventory Keeps Shrinking
This is the part that surprises me the most. Every spring there's an expectation that more sellers come off the sidelines, more listings hit the market, and buyers get a little breathing room. That hasn't happened. Inventory dropped another 24% and we're at 1.89 months of supply — which is even tighter than where we were a month ago.
Part of what's driving this is the rate lock-in effect. A lot of homeowners are sitting on 3% and 4% mortgages from a few years ago and they have zero incentive to sell and take on a 6%+ rate on their next purchase. Until that dynamic changes — either because rates drop significantly or because life circumstances force the move — those homes aren't coming to market.
For buyers in the North Suburbs, this means the competition isn't easing up. When a good home hits the market in Glenview, Skokie, Niles, or Des Plaines, you still need to be prepared to move quickly and come in strong. This is not a market where you have time to sleep on a decision.
What This Means For You
If you're a buyer: The window hasn't closed. But you need to be ready. Get your pre-approval locked in now, know your number, and narrow down your must-haves before you start touring. With 1.89 months of supply, hesitation is the enemy. When the right home comes up you need to be in a position to act — not scrambling to pull paperwork together. And don't let the rate situation paralyze you. Buying at 6.2% in a market where prices are up 4% year over year still beats sitting on the sidelines watching that equity go to someone else.
If you're a seller: You are in the driver's seat. Average sales prices hit $498K, homes are selling at 100.3% of list price, and inventory is at historic lows. If your home is clean, priced right, and marketed well — you are not going to have trouble finding a buyer. The question is where you go next and how you time it. That's a conversation worth having before you list so you're not caught off guard on the other side of the transaction.
Still Hopeful — But Honest
I'm not going to pretend this market is easy right now. Rates didn't drop the way anyone projected. Inventory didn't open up the way spring usually delivers. For buyers trying to get into the North Suburbs, that combination is genuinely frustrating and I understand it.
But here's where I land on it: the fundamentals still point toward improvement in the back half of the year. Steve Molitor's read from Guaranteed Rate is that the rate trajectory is still pointed down — the timing is just less predictable than anyone would like. I'm still hopeful that by end of summer we see a different story. A meaningful rate drop combined with any increase in inventory could shift things quickly.
Until then the play is preparation, not panic. Know your market, know your numbers, and work with someone who's going to give you the real picture — not just tell you what you want to hear.
That's what I'm here for.
Cruz Dwellings | Christian Cruz
Real Estate Agent | North Suburbs Chicago
I'm Christian Cruz, and I help people in Cook County and the Chicago Northern Suburbs buy and sell homes without the typical real estate pressure. Whether you're trying to figure out if now is the right time to move or you just want someone to give you the straight picture on what the market is doing — I'm here for it. No pressure. Just real talk about real estate.
Find out what your home might be worth with our home value tool, check out the Move Meter to compare neighborhoods, or browse more on the Cruz Dwellings blog.
